A new report by ABI Research is forecasting over five billion mobile subscriptions by the end of 2010, with an approximate 4.8 billion connections having been reached by the end of the year's first quarter.

The research document Wireless Subscriber Forecasts identifies much of the growth originating from developing markets in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region but also recognises the increasing traction of high value subscriptions, with applications such as mobile video and TV, in developed territories such as North America and Europe.

Digging down into specifics, ABI says that Africa remains the fastest growing mobile market with a year-on-year growth of over 22% and suggests that mobile penetration in Asia-Pacific will rise significantly to 65% by the end of 2010. India and Indonesia are singled out for special attention with the analyst noting that the two countries have together added over 150 million subscriptions in the past four quarters

Commenting on the developing word phenomenon, ABI Research analyst Bhavya Khanna said, "Falling monthly tariffs and ultra-low-cost mobile handsets have democratised the reach and use of the mobile phone, and aggressive rollouts by mobile operators in these countries will see the current rate of subscriber addition maintained for some time to come."

Whilst no match for the developed world in terms of absolute growth, in terms of value North America and Europe are also showing bullish signs. ABI expects both territories to continue to add subscriptions despite already having crossed the 100% penetration threshold.

Driving this growth in subscriptions, the analyst says, will be new mobile devices and third-screen applications. Specifically these include netbooks and tablet computers seeing use in applications such as playing out video. "The success of Apple's iPad 3G shows that even operators in saturated markets can add subscriptions by introducing innovative and user-friendly devices," noted ABI's vice president of forecasting Jake Saunders.

In addition, the introduction of 4G data networks such as WiMAX-with which US operator Sprint has made bold moves already-and LTE will likely see more consumers access telecoms and entertainment services through mobile broadband connections.